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What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.* I push one step beyond this philosophical-logical question into an empirical reality, and one that has obsessed me since childhood. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of conп¬Ѓrmatory sightings of millions of white swans. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. The sighting of the п¬Ѓrst black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the signiп¬Ѓcance of the story lies.

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How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin?Д®asier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under SkepticismД¬hapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black SwanД«efore the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely conп¬Ѓrmed by empirical evidence. It Was Just a Black Swan How to вЂњProveвЂќ Things Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the PhonyД¬an Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? Where Is the Gray Swan? Chapter 17: LockeвЂ™s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) The Poet of Randomness The Platonicity of TrianglesДЄ Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan Reversals Away from Extremistan Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual FraudДЄ (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From

PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTANД¬hapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back The Idea of Positive Accident Volatility and Risk of Black Swan Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat EpistemocracyД¬hapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? The Grueness of Emerald That Great Anticipation Machine Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream How to Predict Your Predictions! The Nth Billiard Ball The Beauty of Technology: Excel SpreadsheetsДonвЂ™t Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep Information Is Bad for Knowledge The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit On the Vagueness of CatherineвЂ™s Lover Count Black Swan Blindness Redux Guessing and Predicting I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias The Cosmetic Because Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the NerdДЇrom Yogi Berra to Henri PoincarГ© Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction The Teп¬‚on-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova вЂњI Am a Risk TakerвЂќ The Story of the Drowned Worshippers The Cemetery of Letters Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy RewardsД®l desierto de los tГЎrtaros Bleed or BlowupД¬hapter 8: Giacomo CasanovaвЂ™s Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence To Be Wrong with Inп¬Ѓnite Precision Dispassionate ScienceД¬hapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past The MadmanвЂ™s Narrative Narrative and Therapy On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes Splitting Brains How to Learn from the Turkey Trained to Be Dull A Black Swan Is Relative to KnowledgeДЄ Brief History of the Black Swan Problem Scalability and Globalization Travels Inside MediocristanД¬hapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker The Best (Worst) Advice Beware the Scalable The Advent of Scalability PART ONE: UMBERTO ECOвЂ™S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATIONД¬hapter 1: The Apprenticeship of an Empirical SkepticД¬hapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute

Xvi xviii xix xx xxi xxiii xxiv xxv xxvi xxvii On the Plumage of Birds What You Do Not Know Experts and вЂњEmpty SuitsвЂќ Learning to LearnДЄ New Kind of Ingratitude Life Is Very Unusual Plato and the Nerd Too Dull to Write About The Bottom Line Chapters Map To BenoГ®t Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans Uncertainty (Information theory)-Social aspects. Contents: Part one-Umberto EcoвЂ™s antilibrary, or how we seek validation-Part two-We just canвЂ™t predict-Part three- Those gray swans of extremistan-Part four-The end. Includes bibliographical references and index. The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. eISBN: 978-1-58836-583-5 library of congress cataloging-in-publication data Taleb, Nassim. Random House and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York. This book has been optimized for viewing at a monitor setting of 1024 x 768 pixels.Д¬opyright В© 2007 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb All rights reserved. A L S O B Y N A S S I M N I C H O L A S TA L E B